Evolution and forecast of crimes in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54167/ejbei.v2i2.1931

Keywords:

Border City, Thefts, Homocides, Petty Drug Dealing, Forecasting, Trend Analysis

Abstract

This article aims to present the recent evolution of crimes in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, during the period 2015-2023. The crimes studied are thefts, homicides, and petty drug dealing. Additionally, to inform public policy measures, their behavior is forecast for the years 2024-2025. The data were obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System. A growth cycle methodology was applied to the information to identify expansions and contractions of the crimes. For the forecast, ARIMA models were used. The research found 5 periods of expansion and 4 contractions for thefts; 8 expansions and 7 contractions for homicides; and 7 expansions-contractions for petty drug dealing activities. Through trend analysis and forecasting, the research aims to fill a gap in existing literature.

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Author Biographies

  • Isaac Sánchez-Juárez, Department of Social Sciences, Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico

    Professor at the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez
    Member of the National System of Researchers of Mexico
    Member of the Mexican Academy of Sciences
    Editor-in-Chief of the journal Nóesis of Social Sciences and Humanities
    Creator of the Laboratory of Structural Problems of the Mexican Economy

  • Rosa García-Almada, Department of Social Sciences, Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico

    Professor of Economics at the Autonomous University of Ciudad Juarez

    Member of the National System of Researchers and Investigators

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Published

07/01/2025

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025)

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 Isaac Sánchez-Juárez, Rosa María García-Almada

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Evolution and forecast of crimes in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. (2025). Economicus Journal of Business and Economics Insights, 2(2), 84-96. https://doi.org/10.54167/ejbei.v2i2.1931